Practical guide
How to decide whether to stop, continue, or reshape a project when value changes
Compare the choices still available, the value each could create and the commitments each would require, then record a decision that can be revisited.
Wovex
Summary
Decide whether to stop, continue or reshape a project by comparing the remaining benefits, future costs, risks and obligations of each feasible option. Treat irrecoverable past spending as sunk cost, while retaining it in the accountability record. Test changed assumptions, dependencies and alternatives, including what happens if work stops. Record the authorised choice, its rationale, conditions and next review. A reduced forecast requires a fresh judgement; it does not by itself determine the answer.
Start with the decision that is still open
A project can remain on schedule while its expected value weakens. Demand may fall, an enabling change may disappear or the cost of operating the solution may rise. The sponsor then needs an investment decision as well as a delivery update.
State what can actually be decided now. Continuing unchanged, reducing scope, changing sequence, pausing for evidence and closing the initiative may have different authorities and consequences. Make the decision date and the next commitment clear: a contract renewal or rollout can narrow the choices later.
First establish the effects of the changed assumption using the scope and assumptions review guide. Bring that evidence into this decision rather than repeating the change assessment or treating a revised forecast as an instruction to stop.
Separate sunk costs from the consequences of each option
Money and effort already spent and irrecoverable cannot be recovered by approving more work. Keep that history visible for accountability, but do not make recovering past expenditure the reason to continue.
The Green Book distinguishes sunk costs from the costs and benefits of decisions still available. Its public-appraisal context is useful here; this worksheet is not a complete Green Book appraisal.
Examine future obligations carefully. A cancellation payment, continuing support cost, disposal value or cost of redeploying people can differ between options and therefore matter. Check the actual commitments with the relevant specialists. A budget labelled committed does not establish that every future payment is unavoidable.
Consider opportunity cost too. Capacity already paid for may have a valuable alternative use. Equally, stopping can leave a service obligation or stranded capability that needs a funded response. Avoid presenting closure as cost-free.
Complete a stop, continue, reshape decision worksheet
Use the same decision horizon and evidence date for each feasible option. Add a pause or staged commitment where it is a real alternative, including the cost of waiting.
Worksheet question | What to record for each option |
|---|---|
What would we authorise? | The work, scope, sequence and immediate commitment being proposed. |
What value remains? | Future benefits, affected groups, likely timing and the evidence supporting them. |
What must we still spend or provide? | Remaining delivery, transition, operating, closure and support requirements. |
What would change or be lost? | Disbenefits, service effects, dependencies and useful assets retained or abandoned. |
Which assumptions could reverse the choice? | Material demand, adoption, timing and cost assumptions, with evidence gaps. |
What else could meet the need? | A smaller intervention, reuse, another initiative or the feasible position without further work. |
Who can make and implement the decision? | Decision authority, consulted contributors and accountable action owners. |
When should the choice be revisited? | The next evidence point, conditions and developments requiring escalation. |
Retain unlike benefits in meaningful units rather than forcing every effect into a monetary total. Include financial analysis where justified, with a common basis and the appropriate Finance review. Explain important uncertainty rather than replacing it with an unsupported single estimate.
Test the choices with a fictional example
Suppose a programme planned to replace three service channels, but demand for one channel has fallen substantially. The delivered first channel is in use; two further replacements remain unbuilt. Past development expenditure is irrecoverable.
Continuing unchanged would preserve the original coverage but require further development and ongoing support. Stopping all remaining work would avoid some future expenditure, while retaining the old channels and their support obligations. Reshaping could retain the useful first release and replace only the second channel, subject to a credible demand forecast and transition plan.
The committee might authorise a limited investigation of that smaller option before a further commitment. Its record should explain what evidence would justify proceeding and what would make closure preferable. This is an illustrative response, not a recommendation that reshaping always wins.
Check effects elsewhere in the portfolio. Another initiative may depend on the third replacement. Its loss could change the comparison, while an alternative route might preserve the dependency at lower cost. The original project boundary should not conceal those consequences.
Record the reasoning, authority and conditions
Preserve the evidence date, options considered, important disagreements and the reason for the authorised choice. Distinguish the committee’s decision from a proposal awaiting approval. Identify who will communicate and implement it, including any operational handover.
Record uncertainty as it was understood at the time. A defensible decision record need not predict every later event; it should explain why the chosen commitment was reasonable on the available evidence.
If forecasts or targets change, record those changes separately through the agreed process. Do not rewrite the earlier approved expectation to make a revised option appear to have been the original plan.
Follow the decision into the next value review
Check that the chosen response changes the relevant plans, funding commitments, benefit expectations and responsibilities. A decision to stop delivery can still leave benefits in operational use that need an owner and continuing observation.
Use the portfolio value review guide to bring conditions and follow-up back to the appropriate forum. Escalate when evidence overturns a material assumption or a condition cannot be met. Continuing should remain an explainable investment choice, rather than the default produced by an unchanged delivery plan.
Sources and context
The worksheet and service-channel example are Wovex guidance; the example is fictional. The official sources provide scoped appraisal and benefits context, not approval of a particular investment decision. Apply the actual financial, contractual and decision-authority requirements.